Geopolitical Futures is a free newsletter with weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and a global team of analysts. It includes special offers and reports on Turkey, Iran, and the future of the Middle East. Sign up now to receive the special report on Turkey and Iran.
Both Brent and WTI are still markedly higher YTD. Spot gold ended another day in the green. US Treasuries lifted again, with yields falling across the curve. Most US equity benchmarks are trading above pre-conflict levels. US and Iran are gearing up for a second round of peace talks, following last weekend's failure to reach a resolution.
Geopolitical Futures is a free newsletter with weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and a global team of analysts. It includes special offers and reports on Turkey, Iran, and the future of the Middle East. Sign up now to receive the special report on Turkey and Iran.
Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz as Trump vows to keep U.S. blockade in place until peace is made. USAID whistleblower reveals true damage DOGE did to critical agency and the US government. Rev. Sharpton suggests potential 2028 Dem candidates stood out at NAN Convention.
The Strait of Hormuz has been declared open. The fuel crisis is the major issue. There has been a big drop in the oil price, but the situation is not quite as simple as it seems, as I will explain later.
Geoeconomics Forum was held in Washington this week. It was hosted by Foreign Policy and the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Speakers at the forum described a transformed global order where governments deploy economic tools once considered neutral or technical to achieve strategic goals.
Donald Trump has said the war in the Middle East is "close to over" and that a second round of talks with Iran could resume within days. The United States military is enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports, which has been condemned by Tehran and Beijing. The conflict has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Global LNG supply has been reduced by 20%. Oil, gas and fertiliser prices have surged.
Geopolitical Futures is a free newsletter with weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and a global team of analysts. It includes special offers and reports on Turkey, Iran, and the future of the Middle East. Sign up now to receive the special report on Turkey and Iran.
Initial jobless claims came in at 207,000, down from last week’s revised figures and beating economists’ expectations by about 11,000. The labor market is resilient in the face of uncertain situation in the Middle East and high oil prices. Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends on May 15, but he will stay on as chair until a successor is confirmed. Kevin Warsh is the media's critique of Trump's chosen successor for Powell because he's rich.
Iran's military announced it would reimpose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. The Strait is a choke point for 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas supply lines. Europe is at risk of running out of jet fuel within six weeks. Fertilizer prices spiked so high that they could force food prices up into next year. Factories in Vietnam and Bangladesh that U.S. corporations rely on to make products are crushed by soaring energy prices.