U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control has served as a central mechanism for managing strategic competition. New START entered into force in 2011. Russia's suspension of participation in 2023 and the treaty's expiration in 2026 mark a significant turning point. The breakdown of the broader arms control framework suggests a structural shift in the valuation of negotiated restraint. The U.S. seeks to address Russia’s large arsenal of non-strategic nuclear weapons and its development of novel systems. Russia prioritizes constraints on missile defenses and long-range conventional strike capabilities.
Emerging technologies and nuclear weapons systems are changing the landscape of strategic stability. The most significant emerging technology is Artificial Intelligence (AI), a prominent dual-use disruptor. The incorporation of hypersonic technology into delivery vehicles has revolutionized the exchange of weapons in warfare. Cyber warfare has recently moved to the forefront of modern warfare tactics.
The ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East have indirectly bolstered North Korea's plans to expand its nuclear arsenal. Kim Jong-un is quoted as saying the American attacks on Iran justified his decision to strengthen his military power. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms reports of a rise in activity at North Korea’s main nuclear complex, Yongbyon.
Saudi state media reports that Iran may be considering transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as a confidence-building measure to reduce fears of nuclear weaponization. Russia is willing to take custody of Iran’s highly enriched uranium as part of a potential future agreement. The US is reluctant to support any arrangement that places sensitive nuclear material under Russian control. At the heart of the stalled negotiations are fundamentally different visions for Iran's nuclear future. The combination of military tensions, economic pressure, and competing geopolitical interests creates a volatile environment with significant risks.
Israel's policy of ambiguity about its nuclear capability contrasts sharply with the global focus on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Israel and the U.S. have waged two wars on Iran in the past 10 months. Israel is the only country in the Middle East which possesses nuclear weapons. Israel refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The head of the UN nuclear watchdog says North Korea is showing a serious increase in its ability to produce atomic weapons. Rafael Grossi made the remarks on a visit to Seoul. North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and is under UN sanctions for its banned weapons programmes.
IAEA head Rafael Grossi is in South Korea. He warns that North Korea is advancing its capacity to produce nuclear weapons. North Korea has not carried out known atomic tests since 2017, but it has continued to make public tests of nuclear-capable missiles and has periodically displayed weapons muscle by disseminating images of uranium enrichment facilities.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a report on the Implementation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) on Monday. The document outlines Beijing's progress in nuclear disarmament and its long-standing nuclear policies, while blaming the US for causing the current impasse over Iran’s nuclear issue. It also rebukes the US military actions against Tehran. The report was submitted to the 11th Review Conference of the Parties to the NPT, a major diplomatic summit scheduled to take place at the UN headquarters in New York from April 27 to May 22.
IAEA's head, Rafael Grossi, is campaigning to become the next U.N. secretary-general. He is in South Korea this week. Grossi is concerned about North Korea's nuclear development. North Korea hasn't allowed the IAEA to inspect its nuclear facilities since 2009, but the agency keeps track of its development using satellite images.
IAEA director general is in Seoul to discuss the North Korea's nuclear program and South Korea's plan to develop nuclear-powered submarines. Rafael Grossi visited the Demilitarized Zone and stressed the need for renewed diplomacy to address challenges to international peace and security.