Stephen Roach is a Senior Research Scholar of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He joined the Yale faculty in 2010 after 30 years at Morgan Stanley. He was the first senior fellow to join the faculty of Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs at its inception in 2010 and remained in that capacity until 2022. He has written several books, including Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (2022) and Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014). His work has appeared in academic journals, congressional testimony and disseminated widely in the domestic and international media. His commentary is published regularly on Project Syndicate�
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Economic Daily warned that China must "ensure no large-scale return to poverty". China's economy is experiencing a slowdown, rising unemployment, mass closures of small and medium-sized businesses, and local government finances stretched to the breaking point. 80 percent of China’s wealth is concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. The three northeastern provinces, the northwest, and most of central China are falling further behind.
Consumer spending rose by 0.2% from a year earlier in April, down from 1.7% growth in March. April industrial output only rose 4.1%, missing expectations of 5.6%. Fixed-asset investments collapsed, leading to a 1.6% contraction for the first four months of the year. Vehicle sales plunged 15.3% in April. The Middle East conflict drove up the cost of oil and other raw materials. China’s economy expanded by 5% in the first quarter, hitting the top end of the government's 4.5-5% full-year growth target.
President Trump is considering stopping US military assistance to Taiwan in exchange for Beijing's intervention with Iran. Mayor Mamdani and Gov. Hochul’s new taxes will force businesses to leave New York and cause many to lose their jobs, writes Jim Soviero.
On Wednesday, the front page of the state-run English-language newspaper China Daily was dominated by Chinese President Xi Jinping shaking hands with the president of Tajikistan. People's Daily relegated commentary on the U.S. leader’s trip to Page 3. Xinwen Lianbo, the most watched nightly news broadcast in China, announced the visit on Monday in 12 seconds of coverage. Xi stuck to political banalities, speaking about Taiwan, democracy and human rights. Trump and Xi agreed to little of substance, save some minor concessions over trade.
As war spreads and old institutions stall, Beijing is emerging as the key venue for crisis diplomacy and great-power talks. Trump's visit from May 13 to 15 has done more to reset China-US relations than all the discussions conducted over the last nine years. The fabric of the international norms and principles established in the aftermath of World War II has been seriously undermined. China has proposed new initiatives to help restore order in an increasingly disorderly world.
The summit between presidents Xi Jinping and Trump took place on May 14. Xi said in his speech that he hopes the U.S. and China can have mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. Xi’s speech was a repudiation of the principles on which Maoist China was founded.
Donald Trump was wrong about China during his trip to Beijing last week. He doesn't understand the relevant issues about the economic relationship with China. He's also wrong about trade with Canada and forming a large integrated trade zone featuring Japan, Vietnam, Australia and other Pacific Rim countries. He promotes the domestic political fortunes of pro-Russian political parties in NATO member states.
Trump and Xi agreed to build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of fairness and reciprocity. They also agreed Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, called to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and agreed that no country or organization can be allowed to charge tolls.