The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.18% on Friday. The iShares Semiconductor ETF dropped 10%. Broadcom lost nearly 8%. AMD, Intel, Micron Technology, and Marvell Technology posted steep losses. Capital rotated into more defensive areas of the market. Consumer staples and healthcare stocks outperformed.
The Bitcoin Market Monitor by Ecoinometrics delivers a data-driven view of Bitcoin’s macro positioning every month. May was an important month for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has failed to crossover its 200-day moving average and past few weeks have made the setup more complicated.
Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions. Friday’s selloff was a reminder that the recovery in risk assets remains fragile and Bitcoin was already under pressure before the correction started.
US employers added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the consensus estimate of 85,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Polymarket increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end to 53%, while the CME FedWatch tool shows a 42.7% chance that rates will be higher by December. Bitcoin slipped through its 200-week moving average over the weekend.
The US payrolls report was a substantial beat, prompting a jump in shorter-dated US Treasury yields. The USD rose on the back of the release, particularly against the EUR. Tomorrow, the US CPI inflation number and BoC's interest rate decision are the main events.
Oil prices dropped 5% as traders reacted to Trump's surprise announcement. Producer Prices report indicated that PPI increased by +1.1% month-over-month in May. Initial Jobless Claims report showed that 229,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst consensus of 219,000. Treasuries pulled back as traders focused on de-escalation in the Middle East.
Bitcoin and Ether reached cycle lows of $58,000 and $1,507, respectively. The Nasdaq recorded its sharpest daily decline of 5% in months, and South Korea's KOSPI triggered a trading halt after a steep sell-off led by semiconductor stocks. Global M2 has climbed to roughly $122.6 trillion, up steadily over the past year, while Bitcoin has retraced sharply from its $126,000 highs.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 13, indicating that market participants are in “Extreme Fear” mode. Analysts expect an interest rate hike as soon as September this year, because the price of oil has managed to stay above $90 and the war in Iran has no end in sight.
Despite the short-term rebound, market structure and on-chain data do not yet confirm the formation of a sustained uptrend. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further declines, as a solid bottom has yet to be established. There is still insufficient demand from large investors for the leading cryptocurrency. Bitwise believes that Bitcoin’s recent decline reflects broader trends in financial markets and is not solely attributable to issues within the crypto industry.