Ecoinometrics' Friday edition analyzes the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets. Stocks are moving quickly, but not all signals are pointing in the same direction. The rally in U.S. equities since last week is unusual for two reasons: it ignored months of deteriorating macro conditions and the Nasdaq had been stuck in a drawdown for almost six months. Bitcoin's rally is smaller, more gradual and less aggressive than the rally in equities. The Fed is Still Hawkish and That Limits the Upside.
US Treasury yields were little changed yesterday. In FX, the USD index filled the initial ‘haven’ gap higher at the open on Monday. In the commodities complex, oil benchmarks opened the week repricing geopolitical risks, with both WTI and Brent gapping higher. Inflation data in New Zealand beat expectations, but the annual figure was unchanged.
Bitcoin is pushing higher after months of consolidation. Global markets are not recovering evenly. Bitcoin remains 40% below its own all-time high. Bitcoin and most crypto assets are sitting in the waiting room while the repricing of tail risks plays out upstream. Bitcoin’s lag behind equities is not a signal that something is wrong. It is a signal about timing.
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow about 12% year over year in the first quarter. Strength in technology and resilience in various sectors continue to underpin the rally. This week comes with an intense results schedule that will test that narrative. Key reports include 3M, Boeing, Tesla, IBM, ServiceNow, Texas Instruments, Intel, American Express, Procter & Gamble and others. Geopolitics remains in focus.
A crypto analyst lays out a bold timeline of events that could shape the market through 2026. The outlook connects developments in crypto, stocks, and global events into one clear direction. A key moment in this timeline is the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The timing would match a period of peak global attention, which could increase demand and drive prices higher.
Justin Harper is the editor of CEO Middle East and Senior Contributor for Arabian Business. He has worked as a senior business journalist for the BBC, money reporter for the Daily Mail, investment writer for Financial Times Business, deputy money editor of The Telegraph and editor of Campaign Middle East among his roles. Before joining ITP Media Group, he co-founded The Crypto Radio.
This week brings a heavy earnings slate that will test the narrative. S&P 500 profits are expected to grow roughly 12% year over year in Q1, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Key reports include 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), Texas Instruments (TXN), Intel (INTC), American Express (AXP), and Procter & Gamble (PG). Geopolitics remain in focus.
Global investments in crypto funds rose by $1.401 billion last week. Strategy made its largest Bitcoin purchase since November 2024. 65% of Japanese institutional investors use Bitcoin to diversify their portfolios. 31% of respondents view the market outlook positively. Most investors plan to allocate between 2% and 5% of their capital to crypto assets over the next three years.