The US-Israel war with Iran has affected the Strait of Hormuz for the past 100 days. Around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, 30% of fertilizer trade, 40% of urea supply, 50% of sulfur supply, and 30% phosphate supply were affected by the disruption. Oil prices are 30% above pre-war levels, European gas prices 50% higher, and fuel costs for ships surged 59%. OECD estimates that the war and its duration will be decisive for assessing the global economic growth.
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Asia-Pacific equity markets tumbled overnight. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down more than 4%, South Korea's KOSPI tumbled over 7%. Samsung and SK Hynix shed more than 10%. US jobs data came in much stronger than expected. Nasdaq 100 fell 1,450 points (4.8%) to 28,957. S&P 500 fell 200 points (2.6%) to 7,383. Brent and WTI are higher this morning.
Kremlin targeted civilian infrastructure and energy facilities across Ukraine with a series of missiles and drone strikes, killing at least 22 people. House of Representatives passed a bill to allocate aid to Ukraine and impose new sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian schools are being converted from temples of knowledge into factories of compliance, textbooks contain nationalist propaganda and pupils receive an education in chauvinism. Israeli finance minister, a leader of the country’s settlement movement, alighted on New York City to attend the Israel Day parade. Iran fired a volley of missiles at Israel. Peace talks between Iran and the United States stalled.
UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture. MENASource offers the latest news from across the Middle East. Inflection Points is a weekly column by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe.
UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture. UkraineAlert sources analysis and commentary from a wide-array of thought-leaders, politicians, experts, and activists from Ukraine and the global community.
Friday's decline was about the geopolitical premium coming off, not about the supply picture improving. OPEC is holding its 1.2 million barrel per day demand growth forecast. Weaker Chinese buying and lower Iranian exports at six-year lows are partially canceling each other out.
UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture. MENASource offers the latest news from across the Middle East. Inflection Points is a weekly column by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe.
UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture. MENASource offers the latest news from across the Middle East. Inflection Points is a weekly column by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe.