The World Bank has cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5 percent from 2.9 percent predicted in January. It cites surging energy prices, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push global inflation to 4 percent this year. The organisation has set aside up to $60 billion to help developing countries.

The US confirmed a second day of Iranian strikes. The energy story feeds directly into the inflation picture. The BoC kept the overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting. The consensus view is that the Fed will hold next week's meeting.

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The Iran war has resembled a geopolitical version of liar’s poker. Every missile strike, diplomatic statement, military deployment, and oil price movement has contained both signal and theater. This conflict is not defined by a single table with only two players. There are multiple actors, both state and non-state, each possessing different objectives, incentives, and tolerances for risk. Global financial and energy markets are far more difficult to bluff than governments.

Japan relied on the Middle East for over 90 percent of its oil imports but has diversified its supply chain. The United States expanded its exports tenfold and Japan also managed to approach other oil producers. Oil imports have been secured from Latin America, the Asia-Pacific region, Central Asia and Africa, as well as Canada.

President Trump canceled the scheduled strikes against Iran. Trump did not list Iran as a party that agreed to the deal. Traders believe that U.S. and Iran are moving towards a deal, which could be announced soon. UAE and Iran had a face-to-face meeting to discuss mutual relations.

Since its founding in 1922, Foreign Affairs magazine has been the leading forum for serious discussion of American foreign policy and global affairs. The magazine has featured contributions from many leading international affairs experts since its founding. It is published by Simon & Schuster, a division of Penguin Books.

MSCI All Country Asia-Pacific Index dropped about 0.4% on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%, while the mainland CSI 300 Index dropped 0.6%. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed above US$95 a barrel before easing. The US attacked sites in multiple Iranian cities in a second day of air strikes. Iran hit targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan in reply. SpaceX's record US$75 billion IPO on Friday is a further drag on markets. Chinese investors are turning to local alternatives instead.